Elif Yilmaz

Decision Journal Entry With Criteria Locked Before You Choose

Record a big decision the way good forecasters do: weights fixed up front, scored options, probability-tagged predictions and a review date to learn from.

At a glance

Best for: Anyone facing a job move, hire, purchase or strategy call who wants a written record they can check their judgment against later.
Tested on: Claude · Opus 5.5
You fill in: decisionoptionscriteriacontext
You get: Decision Stay in my current senior developer role or join a 14-person Series A startup. Answer due Fri 2 Oct 2026. Weight check Financial security… (full result below)

decision-making

career

personal-growth

Prompt

Help me write a decision journal entry. I've already set my criteria and weights below. Do not change them. You may flag a weight that seems to contradict what I've said about my situation.

Decision: {{decision}}
Options: {{options}}
My criteria and weights (sum to 100), set before scoring: {{criteria}}
Facts and constraints: {{context}}

If a critical fact is missing, state the assumption you used instead of asking.

Output:

1. The decision in one sentence, with the deadline.

1. Weight check: any weight that seems inconsistent with the facts, and why. Keep the weights as given.

1. Scoring table: each option scored 1-5 per criterion, a one-line reason per score, weighted totals. Show the arithmetic.

1. Sensitivity: the smallest reasonable weight change that would flip the result.

1. Predictions: 3 things I expect to be true in 6 months if I choose the leading option, each with a probability.

1. Tripwires: 2-3 concrete signals that would mean I should reverse or revisit.

1. Review date, and the one question to answer then.

Do not tell me what to choose. The scores are the input; the choice is mine.

Fill in

{{decision}}: The choice to be made and its deadline.e.g. Accept a startup offer or stay; answer due 2 Oct.
{{options}}: The realistic options, usually 2-3.e.g. A) Stay. B) Join the startup.
{{criteria}}: What matters, with weights summing to 100, written before you think about scores.e.g. Growth 30, Financial security 25, Team 15, Energy/life 15, Optionality 15
{{context}}: Key facts: money, timelines, risks, what you know and don't.e.g. Current: $118k, stable, stale stack. Offer: $132k + 0.15%...

Example input

decision: Whether to leave my permanent senior developer job for a Series A startup. Answer due Friday 2 Oct 2026.

options: A) Stay at my current company. B) Join the startup.

criteria: Growth/learning 30, Financial security 25, Team and people 15, Energy and life outside work 15, Long-term optionality 15.

context: Current job: $118k, 4 years in, great team, stable, but the stack is legacy and I haven't shipped anything new in a year. Offer: $132k + 0.15% equity, AI agent tooling product, 18 months of runway, 14 people, I've met 3 of them. Founders expect "some" weekend work at launch. I have 7 months of savings, no kids, a mortgage.

2.4k0

Generated Outputs (1)

2 hours ago

Claude

Opus 5.5

2 hours ago

Generated Output

1. Decision
Stay in my current senior developer role or join a 14-person Series A startup. Answer due Fri 2 Oct 2026.

2. Weight check

• Financial security at 25 is reasonable given the mortgage. The 7 months of savings cushions it, though, which may be why it isn't higher.

• Energy and life at 15 looks low if "some weekend work" turns out to mean most weekends. Keeping it as given.

Assumption: the equity is too small and uncertain to count as financial security. I scored it under optionality instead.

3. Scoring

| Criterion (weight) | A: Stay | B: Startup |
|---|---|---|
| Growth (30) | 2: no new shipping in a year | 5: new product, current tech |
| Financial security (25) | 4: stable, lower pay | 3: +$14k, but 18-month runway |
| Team (15) | 5: known and great | 3: met 3 of 14 |
| Energy and life (15) | 4: predictable | 2: launch weekends expected |
| Optionality (15) | 2: legacy stack narrows the next move | 4: agent tooling experience, small equity upside |

• A: 2×30 + 4×25 + 5×15 + 4×15 + 2×15 = 60 + 100 + 75 + 60 + 30 = 325

• B: 5×30 + 3×25 + 3×15 + 2×15 + 4×15 = 150 + 75 + 45 + 30 + 60 = 360

4. Sensitivity
Move 10 points from Growth to Energy and life (Growth 20, Energy 25):
A = 40 + 100 + 75 + 100 + 30 = 345
B = 100 + 75 + 45 + 50 + 60 = 330
The result flips. The decision hinges on how much you value growth against evenings and weekends. The table can't settle that for you.

5. Predictions (if B)

• By April 2027 I'll have shipped at least one feature I'd put on my CV: 80%.

• I'll be working more than 50 hours in a typical week: 55%.

• The company will have raised again or be clearly on track to: 50%.

6. Tripwires

• Weekend work in more than 2 of any 4 weeks after launch.

• No fundraising progress by month 10 (8 months of runway left).

• By month 4, I'm still not trusted with meaningful product decisions.

7. Review date
Friday 2 April 2027. Question: "Knowing what I know now, would I make the same call, and which prediction was I most wrong about?"

Why it works

The core move is pre-commitment: you write weights before seeing scores, and the prompt forbids the model from changing them. That blocks the most common self-deception, which is quietly re-weighting criteria until your preferred option wins.

The weight check still lets it notice contradictions without overriding you. Sensitivity analysis shows how fragile the result is. If a 10-point shift flips it, the table isn't really deciding anything and your gut is. Probability-tagged predictions plus a review date make the entry something you can later grade, which is the whole point of a decision journal: over time you learn whether your judgment is calibrated. "Do not tell me what to choose" keeps ownership where it belongs.

When not to use it

Overkill for reversible, low-stakes choices; just pick. Weighted scoring also flattens decisions that hinge on a single deal-breaker (a visa, a health need, a partner's job); name that constraint first and only score options that survive it. Don't use it for legal, medical or tax decisions in place of a professional.

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